2010 RF12
A small Apollo asteroid with a 1-in-10 impact chance in 2095.
Last updated
2010 RF12 is a very small Apollo-group near-Earth object that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010. It was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability of impacting Earth, at 5%. Rediscovered in August 2022, it now has a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.
Description
According to NASA's Near Earth Program, this asteroid is about 7 meters across and weighs roughly 500 tonnes. If it struck Earth, the rock would likely explode high in the atmosphere, producing a fireball with an energy release near 9 kilotons, more powerful than the Sutter's Mill meteorite but weaker than the Chelyabinsk event. Small pebble-sized debris might then drift down at terminal velocity.
The asteroid will have several close passes; on 6 September 2095 it will come near Earth, and the following year's approach is uncertain because it depends on that flyby. On 17 February 2059, it will pass within 3.5 million kilometers, brightening to magnitude 22.6. It also passed Earth on 10 September 1915.
More in Potential Impact Events Caused by near-Earth Objects
Sources
Compiled from Wikipedia and the sources listed below. Text from Wikipedia is available under CC BY-SA 4.0; this entry is adapted from it.
- Wikipedia: 2010 RF12 (CC BY-SA 4.0).
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