Fenwick (statistic)

Lore & Background

The Fenwick number was named by Matt Fenwick, a blogger from Alberta and fan of the Calgary Flames. On November 22, 2007, he wrote a blog post in which he explained his argument that the best use of Corsi was to derive objective figures that could be used to predict scoring chances, and that a blocked shot is either not a true scoring chance or an average that is of worse quality than unblocked shots. He proposed a new figure that excludes blocked shots, which took on his name, as an alternative. Since then, it has evolved into an advanced statistic that is often used to analyze scoring chances alongside Corsi.

Fenwick is an indicator of how much a team controls the puck offensively throughout the course of a game. A positive Fenwick number would indicate that a team spends more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, while a negative Fenwick number would indicate that a team is more frequently in the defensive zone than offensive zone. Using Fenwick to record possession is useful in that the team with the higher possession numbers generally wins any given game. Additional subcategories of Fenwick exist, including Even Strength Fenwick and Close Fenwick. Even Strength Fenwick specifically refers to the shot differential when both teams are at even strength, as opposed to when special teams are in play. Close Fenwick refers to when the score of the game only differs by one point in either direction.

Reader's Guide

Fenwick is considered to be one of the best ways of predicting future success because it may be a better indicator of quality shot chances than Corsi as a result of its exclusion of blocked shots, which is considered a skill that defensive players use to prevent scoring chances. On a team level, it is used to analyze scoring chances alongside Corsi. The subcategories Even Strength Fenwick and Close Fenwick are useful in coaching for determining which players should be sent out on the ice depending on the current score of the game. However, Fenwick is not without criticism. It is often critiqued for being nothing more than a modification of Corsi that excludes blocked shots. This exclusion is due to the idea that blocking shots is a skill used by defensive players, but it is not universally accepted that this is indeed a skill. There is no proof that blocking shots affects scoring chances in any real way. Additionally, because blocked shot events are not recorded, there is a reduction in total events being measured and a slightly smaller sample of data is being used. With fewer variables, the usefulness of Fenwick may be less significant. In fact, some critics say that in most cases, the difference between Fenwick and Corsi is statistically insignificant.

Did You Know?

• Fenwick is also known as unblocked shot attempts (USAT) by the NHL.
• Fenwick was first proposed in a blog post on November 22, 2007.
• Close Fenwick refers to when the score of the game differs by only one point in either direction.

Origins: A Flames Fan's Blog Post That Changed Hockey Analytics

Fenwick traces its name to Matt Fenwick, an Alberta-based hockey enthusiast and blogger who followed the Calgary Flames. On November 22, 2007, Fenwick published a blog post laying out a specific argument: while Corsi was a useful framework, its most powerful application came when you stripped away blocked shots to isolate what he considered true scoring chances. His reasoning was that a blocked shot either never represented a genuine scoring opportunity to begin with, or it represented a lower-quality chance compared to unblocked attempts. Rather than simply adjusting an existing metric, he proposed an entirely new figure that excluded blocked shots from the equation. The hockey analytics community embraced the concept, and the metric quickly took on his surname. What began as one fan's blog entry in a small Alberta town evolved into a widely recognized advanced statistic, now routinely deployed alongside Corsi to dissect scoring chances in professional hockey.

The Formula and What It Actually Measures

At its core, Fenwick is a shot attempt differential calculated at even strength. The NHL officially refers to it as unblocked shot attempts, or USAT. The calculation is straightforward: you add together all shots on goal directed at the opposing net plus all missed shots that traveled toward that same net, then subtract the identical total of shots on goal and missed shots directed at your own team's net. What distinguishes Fenwick from its cousin Corsi is a single but meaningful exclusion—blocked shot attempts are simply not counted. This means the metric captures only those attempts that actually reached the vicinity of the goal without being intercepted by a teammate. The result is a single number that reflects the balance of unblocked offensive pressure a team generates versus what it concedes, offering a cleaner lens on which side of the ice is truly creating higher-quality opportunities.

Practical Relevance and Specialized Subcategories

Fenwick serves as a practical gauge of offensive zone control. A positive number signals that a team is spending more time generating unblocked chances in the opponent's end, while a negative figure suggests the opposite—more time absorbing pressure in its own defensive zone. Because the team with the higher possession numbers tends to win any given game, coaches and analysts treat Fenwick as one of the strongest predictors of future success. Its edge over Corsi, proponents argue, lies in filtering out blocked shots, which they view as a defensive skill that can mask the true quality of a team's chances. The statistic also branches into specialized subcategories. Even Strength Fenwick isolates the differential when both teams field the same number of skaters, removing the distortion of power plays and penalties. Close Fenwick narrows the lens further, counting only shots taken when the score is separated by a single goal. Together, these subcategories give coaches a nuanced toolkit for deciding which players to deploy based on the current state of the game.

Criticisms and the Ongoing Debate Over Its Value

Despite its popularity, Fenwick has never escaped scrutiny. The most persistent criticism is that it amounts to little more than a trimmed-down version of Corsi, with the sole modification being the removal of blocked shots. Proponents of the metric argue that blocking is a genuine defensive skill that prevents scoring chances, but skeptics counter that no definitive evidence exists proving shot blocking actually reduces the likelihood of a goal in any meaningful way. If the exclusion is not grounded in a verifiable causal link, the entire premise of Fenwick's superiority over Corsi wobbles. There is also a practical data concern: because blocked shot events are excluded from the count, the total number of measurable events shrinks, yielding a smaller sample size. With fewer data points feeding into the calculation, some statisticians argue the practical difference between Fenwick and Corsi is, in most cases, statistically insignificant. While Fenwick still offers a useful alternative to the crude plus-minus rating, its standing as a distinctly superior metric remains a matter of ongoing debate within the analytics community.