Fenwick (statistic)
Advanced statistic measuring unblocked shot attempt differential at even strength.
Fenwick is an advanced hockey statistic that measures the difference in unblocked shot attempts when both teams are at even strength. The NHL also calls it unblocked shot attempts (USAT). It counts shots on goal and missed shots aimed at the opponent’s net, then subtracts the same types of attempts directed at a team’s own net. The key difference from Corsi is that Fenwick leaves out blocked shot attempts.
The stat gets its name from Matt Fenwick, a Calgary Flames fan and blogger in Alberta. In a blog post from 2007, he argued that Corsi was best used to create objective numbers for predicting scoring chances. He believed a blocked shot either wasn’t a true scoring chance or was of worse quality than an unblocked one. He proposed a new figure that excluded blocked shots, and it eventually became known as Fenwick. Over time, it developed into an advanced stat often used alongside Corsi to analyze scoring chances.
The formula is: (Shots on goal FOR + missed shots FOR) – (Shots on goal AGAINST + missed shots AGAINST).
Fenwick indicates how much a team controls the puck offensively during a game. A positive number means a team spends more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone; a negative number means the opposite. Using Fenwick to track possession is useful because the team with higher possession numbers generally wins any given game. At the team level, it is considered one of the best ways to predict future success, since excluding blocked shots may give a better read on quality scoring chances than Corsi does. Blocking shots is seen as a defensive skill that prevents scoring chances.
There are subcategories like Even Strength Fenwick, which looks only at shot differential when both teams are at full strength, and Close Fenwick, which applies when the score differs by one goal in either direction. Coaches use these to decide which players to put on the ice based on the current score.
Fenwick and Corsi may evaluate a player’s contribution to winning better than plus-minus, but they face criticism. Some argue Fenwick is just a modified version of Corsi that drops blocked shots. The idea that blocking shots is a skill is not universally accepted, and there is no proof it affects scoring chances in a real way. Also, because blocked shots are not recorded, the total number of events measured is smaller, giving a slightly smaller sample of data.
- Full name
- Fenwick (statistic)
- Also known as
- Unblocked shot attempts (USAT)
- Named after
- Matt Fenwick
- Originator location
- Alberta
- Originator affiliation
- Calgary Flames fan
- First proposed
- November 22, 2007
Lore & Background
The Fenwick number was named after Matt Fenwick, a blogger from Alberta and fan of the Calgary Flames. On November 22, 2007, he wrote a blog post arguing that the best use of Corsi was to derive objective figures that could predict scoring chances, and that a blocked shot is either not a true scoring chance or an average of worse quality than unblocked shots. He proposed a new figure that excludes blocked shots, which took on his name, as an alternative. Since then, it has evolved into an advanced statistic often used to analyze scoring chances alongside Corsi.
The formula for Fenwick is: (Shots on goal FOR + missed shots FOR) – (Shots on goal AGAINST + missed shots AGAINST). A positive Fenwick number indicates a team spends more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, while a negative number indicates the opposite. Using Fenwick to record possession is useful because the team with higher possession numbers generally wins any given game.
Additional subcategories include Even Strength Fenwick, which refers to shot differential when both teams are at even strength, and Close Fenwick, which refers to when the score differs by only one point in either direction. These subcategories are useful in coaching for determining which players should be sent onto the ice depending on the current score.
Reader's Guide
Fenwick is significant as an indicator of how much a team controls the puck offensively throughout a game. On a team level, it is considered one of the best ways of predicting future success because its exclusion of blocked shots may make it a better indicator of quality shot chances than Corsi, as blocking shots is considered a skill that defensive players use to prevent scoring chances. However, Fenwick is not without criticism. It is often critiqued for being nothing more than a modification of Corsi that excludes blocked shots. This exclusion is based on the idea that blocking shots is a skill, but it is not universally accepted that this is indeed a skill, and there is no proof that blocking shots affects scoring chances in any real way. Additionally, because blocked shot events are not recorded, there is a reduction in total events measured and a slightly smaller sample of data, which some critics argue makes the usefulness of Fenwick less significant. In fact, some critics say that in most cases, the difference between Fenwick and Corsi is statistically insignificant. Despite these criticisms, Fenwick (and its counterpart Corsi) may provide a better evaluation of an individual player's contributions to a team's winning effort than the plus-minus statistic.
Did You Know?
- Fenwick is also known as unblocked shot attempts (USAT) by the NHL.
- The statistic was first proposed in a blog post on November 22, 2007.
- Fenwick excludes blocked shot attempts, unlike the similar statistic Corsi.
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