Festivals And Celebrations Codexery

Groundhog Day

Annual tradition predicting spring's arrival via a groundhog's shadow.

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It derives from Pennsylvania Dutch superstition that a groundhog seeing its shadow predicts six more weeks of winter.[1] On February 2 each year, communities in the United States and Canada observe a tradition called Groundhog Day.[2] Research indicates that a groundhog's shadow sighting does not reliably predict when spring-like weather will arrive.[3]

Key facts and history

The first "official" Groundhog Day was commemorated in Punxsutawney in 1887.[4] The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club was formed in 1899.[5] The groundhog was not named Phil until 1961.[6] Bears were the initial weather-predicting animals in Germany, but the tradition shifted to other animals once bears became less common.[7]

Pennsylvanians kept the German custom but extended the predicted period of continued winter from four weeks to six weeks.[8] Don Yoder's book notes that the earliest known reference to Groundhog Day appears in a diary kept by James L. Morris of Morgantown, Pennsylvania, dated February 2, 1840.[9] The Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper in 1886 published what is arguably the first news report of a Groundhog Day observance.[4] Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania hosts the biggest Groundhog Day celebration annually, drawing up to 40,000 attendees.[10]

What the cited sources add

Data from the Stormfax Almanac shows Phil's six-week prognostications have been correct about 39% of the time.[11] The same analysis placed Punxsutawney Phil at only 21.4% accuracy.[12] Climatologists from Lakehead University published a 2021 study examining 530 forecasts made by 33 different groundhogs; they determined the predictions perform no better than chance, with a 50% accuracy rate.[13]

References

  1. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: "Groundhog Day 2026 live updates: Phil has made his prediction", USA TODAY (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  2. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Poteet, "The South Shore Phrase Book", Methuen, 2008; Chambers, "Canadian English: Origins and Structures", Lancelot Press, 2004; Wilson, "The dialect of Lunenburg County, Nova Scotia: a study of the English of the county, with reference to its sources, preservation of relics, and vestiges of bilingualism", University of Michigan, 1959, p. 52 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  3. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Lewis, "Groundhog Day: How Often Does Punxsutawney Phil Get It Right?", Live Science, February 2, 2017; Nemzet, "Hogy mikor jön a tavasz, napokon belül kiderül", Hogy mikor jön a tavasz, napokon belül kiderül, 2024-01-28; "Márkó Schwaben.hu", schwaben.hu (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  4. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Davis 1985, p. 103 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  5. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Carlson, "His Moment In the Sun", The Washington Post, February 3, 2004; Yoder 2003, p. 52–53 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  6. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Reilly, "Why is Punxsutawney's Groundhog Called Phil?", Mental Floss, 2019-02-01 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  7. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Yoder 2003, p. 52–53; Grambow, "Johnson-Jahrbuch", Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, 1994, p. 77; von Lewenau, "Der Angewandte Fresenius: Oder Sammlung Geordneter Allgemeiner Witterungs Und Sogenannter Bauernregeln", J.G. Mösle, 1823, p. 20 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  8. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Yoder 2003, p. 52–53; Shoemaker, "February Lore", February 1, 1954; Lambert, "Pennsylvania-German Dictionary", Pennsylvania-German Society, 1924, p. 35 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  9. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Kruesi, "Reviewed Work: Groundhog Day by Don Yoder", Journal of American Folklore, Summer 2007, p. 367–368}} {{JSTOR; , diary printed in "Folklore from the Diary of James L. Morris, 1845–1646", Pennsylvania Dutchman 3:17 (February 1, 1952)" (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  10. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Park, "Happy Groundhog Day to You!", February 2, 2006; Yoder 2003, p. 52–53; Carlson, "His Moment In the Sun", The Washington Post, February 3, 2004 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
  11. "How Accurate Are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day Forecasts?", Live Science. facts only, no text reused. livescience.com
  12. "CT's 'groundhogs' predictions are among the nation's most accurate", The Connecticut Mirror, 2 February 2024. facts only, no text reused. ctmirror.org
  13. Wikipedia, "Groundhog Day" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: "Broadscale Assessment of Groundhog (<em>Marmota monax</em>) Predictions of Spring Onset No Better than Chance", Weather, Climate, and Society, 2021, p. 503-510 (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org

Each numbered sentence above was checked against the source it cites before publication. Sentences citing Wikipedia adapt text from the English Wikipedia article Groundhog Day (contributors), used under CC BY-SA 4.0; this entry is available under the same licence. Other sources were used for facts only; no text or images are copied from them.

Related entries

Named in this entry

Groundhog Day (film)Equinox

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Sources

Compiled from Wikipedia and the sources listed below. Text from Wikipedia is available under CC BY-SA 4.0; this entry is adapted from it.

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