Ex-Cubs Factor

Ex-Cubs Factor hypothesis

The theory was developed on October 15, 1981, by Ron Berler, a freelance journalist and Cubs fan. Berler posited in an article that it is utterly impossible for a team with three or more ex-Cubs to win the World Series. He based this on a pattern observed in the post-1945 era, 1945 being the last time the Chicago Cubs made it to a World Series until 2016. Berler cited examples such as the 1958 Milwaukee Braves, the 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers, and the 1978 Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 1978 Dodgers had lost the 1977 World Series with three ex-Cubs and seemed to improve after trading away Mike Garman, but then traded for ex-Cub Bill North, leading to a tailspin and a World Series loss. The 1980 Kansas City Royals also lost with three ex-Cubs. In the original article, Berler predicted the 1981 New York Yankees would lose because they had five ex-Cubs: Oscar Gamble, Bobby Murcer, Dave LaRoche, Rick Reuschel, and Barry Foote. This prediction proved correct when the Yankees lost to the Dodgers.

Berler related this to inherent Cubness, writing that the ballclub possesses eerie, bewitching powers over its players and that Cubness is synonymous with abject failure.

Cases for the Ex-Cubs Factor hypothesis

Since 1945, of the 25 teams to reach the World Series with three or more Cubs players, only 4 have won: the 1960 Pirates, the 2001 Diamondbacks, the 2008 Phillies, and the 2012 Giants. Since its articulation in 1981, the factor has been used to predict and explain postseason defeats. In the 1980s, it was cited in a letter to the editor as a reason for the 1984 San Diego Padres' loss and for the collapse of the 1985 Toronto Blue Jays after they added ex-Cub Cliff Johnson.

Bill Buckner's error in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series was interpreted to fit the factor; Buckner, a former Cub, was shown wearing a Cubs batting glove under his mitt. The theory became more prominent in 1990 when popularized by syndicated Chicago Tribune columnist Mike Royko. Berler asserted the factor as the reason the favored Oakland Athletics, with ex-Cubs Scott Sanderson, Dennis Eckersley, and Ron Hassey, lost the 1990 World Series. He also cited it for the 1991 Pittsburgh Pirates' defeat in the NLCS.

Mike Royko used it to predict the playoff collapse of the 1993 Atlanta Braves. The factor was used to predict the San Francisco Giants' loss in the 2002 World Series, as they had three ex-Cubs: Shawon Dunston, Benito Santiago, and Tim Worrell.

Cases against the Ex-Cubs Factor hypothesis

Berler's study revealed only one exception from 1945 to the time of his study: the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates, who won with three ex-Cubs. Berler contended that one ex-Cub, Don Hoak, spent so little time in Chicago (121 games in one season) that he did not fully develop his Cubness, quoting pitcher Jim Brosnan that Hoak was the only man who conquered his Cubness. The Society for American Baseball Research researched World Series rosters from 1946 to 2013, finding Berler's rate more effective (17/22) than Royko's (32/56), though with evident cases against each.

Notably, the 1973 Oakland A's had three ex-Cubs (Pat Bourque, Ken Holtzman, Bill North) on the roster during their run, though North did not play in the Series. The 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates won with three ex-Cubs (Matt Alexander, Bill Madlock, Dave Roberts), though Roberts did not play in the Series. The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks had four ex-Cubs (Miguel Batista, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan, Luis Gonzalez) and defeated the New York Yankees. Mark Grace declared in a post-game interview that they beat the ex-Cub Factor.

Two of the four ex-Cubs played prominent roles in the ninth inning of Game 7: Grace got a lead-off single and Gonzalez drove in the winning run. The 1960 Pirates and 2001 Diamondbacks are among the few teams to win the World Series in Game 7 walk-off victories.

Applied to other teams

The Ex-Cubs Factor idea has been applied to other teams, both positively and negatively. Jeff Blair suggested an ex-Expos factor, linking former Montreal players like Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Gary Carter to postseason wins. Jim Caple of ESPN.com also proposed an ex-Mariners factor, noting strong playoff performances from ex-Seattle players.

Did You Know?

• The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks had four ex-Cubs on their roster when they beat the New York Yankees, and Mark Grace declared in a post-game interview that 'We beat the ex-Cub Factor!'
• Mike Royko developed a modified hypothesis that a team with no ex-Cubs probably has the edge over a team with even one, citing the 1986 Mets (no ex-Cubs) beating the Red Sox (who had ex-Cub Bill Buckner).