Asteroid impact prediction
Predicting when and where asteroids will strike Earth.
Last updated
Asteroid impact prediction involves discovering an asteroid, assessing its orbit from a short observation arc, then improving the orbit through follow-up observations to calculate if and when it might intersect Earth.[1] Current systems detect an arriving object only when its direction relative to the Sun, weather, and Moon phase align.[2] Asteroids that are small are harder to spot before they hit, but a few such small impactors have been seen just hours ahead of time.[2]
Quick Facts
- Chelyabinsk meteor size
- 18 m (60 ft) across
- Chelyabinsk injuries
- 1,500 people
- Chelyabinsk buildings damaged
- over 7,000
- Near miss prediction landmark
- 367943 Duende (20 m × 40 m / 131 ft) predicted 11 months before close approach
Facts from the source article.
Key facts and history
In April 2018 the B612 Foundation stated "It's 100 per cent certain we'll be hit, but we're not 100 per cent sure when"[3] Also in 2018 physicist Stephen Hawking considered an asteroid collision the biggest threat to the planet.[3] The effectiveness of cataloging is limited because some objects have been lost since discovery due to insufficient observations.[4] The one-kilometer threshold was selected because studies showed that objects below that size, while able to cause regional harm, are not expected to produce a global catastrophe.[5]
In June 2018, the US National Science and Technology Council released a plan stating that the country lacks readiness for an asteroid strike.[3] By 2018, roughly 900 kilometer-sized objects had been cataloged (nearly complete), while about 8500 objects of 140 meters had been found (about one-third complete).[4]
What the research sources say
The Spacewatch group at the University of Arizona was founded by Prof. Tom Gehrels and Dr. Robert S. McMillan in 1980.[6] Since 1998 Spacewatch has focused primarily on follow-up astrometry of objects that might present a hazard to Earth.[6] The 1.5-meter telescope covers 1000 square degrees per night with a limiting magnitude V~21.5 using 30-second exposures.[7] The 0.7-meter Schmidt telescope has a field of view of 19.4 square degrees.[7]
The ATLAS telescope in South Africa will scan the sky roughly twice a night using a 110 megapixel camera.[8] Observations will be used to calculate orbits of newly discovered asteroids to predict if they can impact Earth.[8] The Space Surveillance Telescope was relocated from New Mexico to Australia in 2017 and captured its first images in 2020.[9]
References
- Wikipedia, "Asteroid impact prediction" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: ; "Federal Government Releases National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Plan", Centre for NEO Studies (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia, "Asteroid impact prediction" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Smaller asteroids may be bright enough to observe only briefly. Larger asteroids remain visible longer, which can offset temporary obstacles such as bad weather (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia, "Asteroid impact prediction" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Homer, "Earth Will Be Hit By An Asteroid With 100 Percent Certainty, Says Space-Watching Group B612 The group of scientists and former astronauts is devoted to defending the planet from a space apocalypse.", Inquisitr, 2; Stanley-Becker, "Stephen Hawking feared race of 'superhumans' able to manipulate their own DNA", The Washington Post, 15 October 2018; Haldevang, "Stephen Hawking left us bold predictions on AI, superhumans, and aliens", Quartz, 14 October 2018; Staff, "National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy Action en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia, "Asteroid impact prediction" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Incompleteness refers to the fraction of undiscovered asteroids, not the amount of time remaining to achieve completeness. The asteroids remaining to be discove; The exact percentage of objects discovered is uncertain but is estimated using statistical techniques. 2018 estimates for objects at least 1 km in size put; "Update to Determine the Feasibility of Enhancing the Search and Characterization of NEOs", Near-Earth Object Science Definition Team Report 2017; Granvik, "Debiased orbit and absolute-magnitude distribution en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia, "Asteroid impact prediction" (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites: Morrison, D., 25 January 1992, The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop , NASA, Washington, D.C. (original not read by us) en.wikipedia.org
- "Spacewatch", UA Lunar & Planetary Lab. facts only, no text reused. spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu
- UA Lunar & Planetary Laboratory, "Catalina Sky Survey Telescopes", Catalina Sky Survey. facts only, no text reused. catalina.lpl.arizona.edu
- Makoni, "NASA's next-generation asteroid telescope set for South Africa", Physics World, 4 September 2018. facts only, no text reused. physicsworld.com
- Courtney, "Space Force surveillance telescope now operational in Australia", Defense News, 30 September 2022. facts only, no text reused. defensenews.com
Each numbered sentence above was checked against the source it cites before publication. Sentences citing Wikipedia adapt text from the English Wikipedia article Asteroid impact prediction (contributors), used under CC BY-SA 4.0; this entry is available under the same licence. Other sources were used for facts only; no text or images are copied from them.
More in Notable Asteroids
Sources
Compiled from Wikipedia and the sources listed below. Text from Wikipedia is available under CC BY-SA 4.0; this entry is adapted from it.
- Wikipedia: Asteroid impact prediction (CC BY-SA 4.0).
- Word definitions: the , each quoted from its Wikipedia article.
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