Climate change in Ghana

Did You Know?

• Lake Volta, the largest artificial lake by surface area in the world, changed climate patterns in Ghana.
• The Center for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies at the University of Ghana conducts research on climate change, health, resource management, economics, and renewable energy.
• Flooding affects approximately 45,000 Ghanaians every year.

Greenhouse gas emissions

In 2023, Ghana emitted roughly 52 million tons of greenhouse gases, or about 1.5 tons per person, representing approximately 0.1% of the global total. Carbon dioxide from fuel combustion in the energy sector reached 21.397 million tons in 2021, a 332% increase in per-capita emissions since 2000. Oil burning was the primary source, accounting for 66% of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, while the transportation sector contributed 47% of energy-related CO2, followed by electricity and heat production at 34%.

Smaller amounts of methane and nitrous oxide are also released during fossil fuel combustion. The Jubilee offshore oil field, which began production in 2010, has necessitated gas flaring due to insufficient infrastructure; long-term flaring at the field may be inevitable without accelerated development and would produce about 1.5 million tons of CO2 annually, or 7% of Ghana's total national emissions. Average crude oil production capacity was about 176,000 barrels per day in September 2021.

Impacts on the natural environment

Ghana has experienced a 1.0 °C temperature increase since 1960, with the drier northern areas warming more rapidly than the south. Northern Ghana has one rainy season, while the south has two, and annual rainfall is highly variable. Long-term rainfall trends are challenging to predict, and there is no evidence that extreme rain events have either increased or decreased since 1960. However, projected Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for 2071–2100 indicate a change from tropical savannah to arid steppe in some coastal areas. Sea level has risen at 2.1 mm per year over the last 30 years, with projected surges of 16.5 cm by 2050 and 34.5 cm by 2080. Half of Ghana's coastline is vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Water volumes in the Volta, Bia, and Tano river basins are expected to decrease, with the Volta Basin predicted to see a 24% reduction by 2050 and a 45% reduction by 2100.

Impacts on people

Forty-five percent of Ghana's workforce depends on small-holder rain-fed agriculture, and erratic rainfall and extreme weather are expected to harm economic well-being. Staple crops such as cassava, maize, and cocoa are projected to see decreased production; maize and other cereal yields could fall by 7% by 2050. Deforestation and new dams that dried up rivers have contributed to migration to Accra, increasing poor-quality unplanned settlements in flood-prone areas.

A 2024 World Bank report estimates that about two million Ghanaians are vulnerable to food insecurity. Seafood provides 40–60% of protein intake, and key fish species are expected to have worse reproduction cycles; climate change alone could reduce possible fish catches by 25% or more by 2050. Hydropower provides 54% of national generation capacity, and unpredictable rainfall may reduce capacity by as much as 50% for the Volta Basin, adding uncertainty to a grid already experiencing frequent outages.

Mitigation and adaptation

Ghana signed the Paris Agreement in 2016 and ratified it the same year. The first national climate change adaptation strategy was developed for implementation between 2010 and 2020. In 2015, Ghana developed its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, which became its Nationally Determined Contribution after the Paris Agreement. The country has pledged to adopt 34 strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with 9 implemented independently and 25 dependent on external support, aiming to cut emissions by 64 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario for 2020–2030.

Ghana has also committed to net zero by 2060. The country faces increased climate vulnerability due to population growth, high poverty rates, and an economy dependent on vulnerable industries. A 2022 World Bank report noted that Ghana has slowed in economic development and has not fully converted natural wealth into infrastructure and human capital, but taking a climate-resilient and low-carbon pathway could deliver large economic and social benefits.