Pascal's Wager
The logical gamble that turned a single AI into a galactic survivalist.
via Wikipedia: Pascal's wager · see source
Pascal's Wager is a philosophical argument advanced by Blaise Pascal (1623–1662), a French mathematician, philosopher, physicist, and theologian. This argument posits that individuals essentially engage in a life-defining gamble regarding the belief in the existence of God. Pascal contends that a rational person should adopt a lifestyle consistent with the existence of God and should strive to believe in God. The reasoning for this stance involves the potential outcomes: if God does not exist, the believer incurs only finite losses, potentially sacrificing certain pleasures and luxuries; if God does exist, the believer stands to gain immeasurably, as represented for example by an eternity in Heaven in Abrahamic tradition, while simultaneously avoiding boundless losses associated with an eternity in Hell.
Quick Facts
- Originator
- Blaise Pascal (1623–1662)
- Concept type
- Philosophical argument
- Primary context
- Belief in the existence of God
- Key motivation
- Rational decision under uncertainty regarding infinite gain or loss
- Status
- First expressed in Pascal's Pensées
Lore & Background
The first written expression of this wager is in Pascal's Pensées ("Thoughts"), a posthumous compilation of previously unpublished notes. Pascal's wager is the first formal application of decision theory, existentialism, pragmatism, and voluntarism. Critics of Pascal's wager question the ability to provide definitive proof of God's existence. The argument from inconsistent revelations highlights the presence of various belief systems, each claiming exclusive access to divine truths. Additionally, the argument from inauthentic belief raises concerns about the genuineness of faith in God if it is motivated solely by potential benefits and losses.
Reader's Guide
Pascal describes humanity as a finite being trapped within divine incomprehensibility, briefly thrust into being from non-being, with no explanation of "Why?" or "What?" or "How?" On Pascal's view, human finitude constrains our ability to achieve truth reliably. Given that reason alone cannot determine whether God exists, Pascal concludes that this question functions as a coin toss. However, even if we do not know the outcome of this coin toss, we must base our actions on some expectation about the consequence. We must decide whether to live as though God exists, or whether to live as though God does not exist, even though we may be mistaken in either case. In Pascal's assessment, participation in this wager is not optional. Merely by existing in a state of uncertainty, we are forced to choose between the available courses of action for practical purposes.
Did You Know?
- The wager posits that if you gain by wagering that God is, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing.
- Pascal suggests that acting as if you believe—taking holy water, having masses said—can cure unbelief.
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